Marginmn

This is an article by Newt Gingrich. Former Republican Speaker of the House and ardent Donald Trump supporter who is right now watching the tragedy in Italy unfold first hand. The gist of Newt's opinion article is that America needs to get prepared - and fast. Newt says that Italy, like France, is making battlefield - like triage decisions on who gets a shot a living by getting on a respirator. The life or death decision is based on the patient's estimated remaining life-span. Basically, their hospitals are already overrun and the virus has only shown it's head in Italy for a few weeks.

Hope to God we don't see that situation here and that is why they are taking the precautions to mitigate contact and spread of the virus to slow it up a bit.

NEWT GINGRICH: I AM IN ITALY AMID THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS. AMERICA MUST ACT NOW—AND ACT BIG | OPINION

NEWT GINGRICH
ON 3/13/20 AT 4:51 PM EDT

https://www.newsweek.com/newt-gingri...pinion-1492270

IGetWet

🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️

damdonzi

For those of you that don’t seem to be into facts how about an actual report from a nurse outside Seattle in Kirkland Washington? This was from earlier this week.



“So if you're not here in Kirkland let me give you an update on our not so little town.
Our local hospital, Evergreen, one of the top-ranked hospitals in the country and literally at ground zero in the fight against Coronavirus has run out of beds as of today. The staff is exhausted, demoralized, and supplies are running low.
Because so many staff members are sick, and the operational tempo is so high, medical staff told to be in quarantine due to exposure, but not showing symptoms have been summoned back to work. So far 65 patients have entered the hospital positive for COVID-19, 15 didn't leave alive (as of 3/10).
Tom Douglas, multiple James Beard Award winner is closing down 12 of his 13 restaurants (only leaving one open because of a contract with a hotel) because business is down 90%.
Boeing, which was a hot mess with the 737-MAX issue, to begin with, is now losing more orders than it is getting as the airline industry braces for a 70% reduction in air travel. At the basement of 9/11, global air travel was off 40%.
Norweigan Cruiselines, headquartered in Seattle, has been called out for lying to customers about the safety of their ships, their capacity to protect passengers and making it difficult to cancel or reschedule trips.
Starbucks has announced they will be limited seating in their stores and ones with drive-thru will go drive-thru only.
The Seattle Mariners have moved their home openers out of the area, for now, my guess is the MLB will follow every other sports league and suspend the start of baseball.
Our school district has suspended classes until March 27, but my guess is it will go longer. Issaquah, a town nearby has suspended classes until April 24.
I was in our nearest grocery store, which is a flagship "Fred Meyer" store (Kroger corp) and all of the staples aisles were close to empty. Beans, rice, flour, pasta. Beans about wiped out, the only rice I could find was a 5-pound bag in the Asian section. Only the high-end "boutique" pasta and a few more complex dish pasta like lasagna noodles. The Jewish section had some noodles in it, and the Asian section still had some ramen.
There is no traffic. There is an eerie quiet in the air, and although the videos of people racing in Costco are entertaining, I have not seen anyone running in a store to the TP, fights over food, or other resources. There is this strange calm, but I always remind myself that history has shown we are three hot meals and a warm bed away from wanting to kill each other.
My wife has shared some other stories from her work - nothing sinister or ominous but nothing I can share and nothing that even if I could, I feel ready to share.
We no longer hear about Life Care Center. The federal government finally showed up there and now all news has stopped. The 70+ employees who are all in various states of being sick are still not tested - that we know. One-third of our town fire department is now in quarantine. If there is anything that gives me the creeps it is this. The government showed up and the news stopped.
When we returned from our trip to Africa on 2/26 and went through Customs in Seattle, there was no screening, no questions, no testing, no sorting of passengers. Nothing. Welcome back, stamp of the passport, done. The lines weren't long and the lack of any form of screening at this Asian gateway was disconcerting. It paled in comparison to the strict protocols we went through in Windhoek and Johannesburg, and the announcements and questions in Frankfurt. What we didn't know at that time is from 2/19 to 2/25, 12 patients had died at Life Care Center for unknown reasons, and the first COVID-19 death was on 2/26.
The response to the threat at a federal level was non-existent.
My opinion.
The Seattle area is about two weeks ahead of most of the United States. For those going this is just hype and this is just the flu, come fly here and see for yourself. I mean flights are cheap and planes are empty. Can even offer you a place to sleep.(no not really, but Kirkland has plenty of hotels)
The Seattle area is probably 2 to 3 weeks behind Iran or Italy at this point. The tidal wave is coming, I believe most in the general public are just in denial about it at this point.
In Italy Coronavirus is killing young and old alike because once you run out of beds, once you run out of breathing machines, Coronavirus becomes an equal opportunity killer. You get pneumonia, your lungs fill up, you basically drown.
When you can get advanced care, your survival odds are very good. Once that system falls apart, it is first come first serve, and how healthy are you. A lot of younger Americans are very unhealthy with multiple comorbidity factors.
Evergreen Hospital ran out of beds today.
Winter is coming.”

damdonzi

Harvard Med Physician:

"I know there is some confusion about what to do next in the midst of this unprecedented time of a pandemic, school closures, and widespread social disruption.

What I can say as a physician and public health leader, is that what we do, or don't do, over the next week will have a massive impact on the local and perhaps national trajectory of coronavirus. We are only about 11 days behind Italy and generally on track to repeat what is unfortunately happening there, as well as much of the rest of Europe very soon.

At this point, containment through contact tracing and testing is only part of the necessary strategy. We must move to pandemic mitigation through widespread, uncomfortable, and comprehensive social distancing.

That means not only shutting down schools, work (as much as possible), group gatherings, and public events. It also means making daily choices to stay away from each other as much as possible to Flatten The Curve.

Our health system will not be able to cope with the projected numbers of people who will need acute care should we not muster the fortitude and will to socially distance each other starting now. On a regular day, we have about 45k ICU beds nationally, which can be ramped up in a crisis to about 93k.

Even moderate projections suggest that if current infectious trends hold, our capacity (locally and nationally) may be overwhelmed as early as mid-late April. Thus, the only set of interlinked strategies that can get us off this concerning trajectory is to work together as a community to maintain public health by staying apart.

So what does this enhanced form of social distancing mean on a daily basis, when schools are cancelled?

I can suggest the following:

1. No playdates, parties, sleepovers, or families visiting each other's houses. This sounds extreme because it is. We are trying to create distance between family units and between individuals across those family units. It is uncomfortable, especially for families with small children or for kids who love to play with their friends. But even if you choose only one friend to have over, you are creating new links and possibilities for the type of transmission that all of our school/work/public event closures are trying to prevent. The symptoms of coronavirus take 4-5 days to manifest themselves. Someone who comes over looking well can transmit the virus. Sharing food is particularly risky - I definitely do not recommend that people do so outside of their family. We have already taken extreme social measures to address this serious disease - let's not actively co-opt our efforts by having high levels of social interaction at people's houses instead of the schools. Again - the wisdom of early and aggressive social distancing is that it can flatten the curve above, give our health system a chance to not be overwelmed, and eventually may reduce the length and need for longer periods of extreme social distancing later (see what has transpired in Italy and Wuhan). We need to all do our part during these times, even if it means some discomfort.

2. Take walks/runs outside, but maintain distance (ideally 6 feet between people outside your family). Try not to use public facilities like playground structures as coronavirus can live on plastic and metal for up to 3 days, and these structures aren't getting regularly cleaned. Try not to have physical contact with people outside of your family. Going outside will be important during these strange times, and the weather is improving. Go outside every day if you can but stay physically away from others. Try not to have kids play with each other (even outside) if that means direct physical contact. Even basketball or soccer involve direct contact and cannot be recommended. If people wish to go outside and have a picnic with other families, I strongly recommend keeping distance of at least 6 feet, not sharing any food at all, and not having direct physical contact. Invariably, that is hard with kids, so these shared, "distant" picnics may be tricky. Do not visit nursing homes or other areas where large numbers of the elderly reside, as they are at highest risk for complications and mortality from coronavirus. We need to find alternate ways to reduce social isolation in these communities through virtual means instead of physical in-person visits.

3. Reduce the frequency of going to stores/restaurants/coffee shops for the time being. Of course trips to the grocery store will be necessary, but try to limit them and go at times when less busy. Consider wearing gloves (not medical - but perhaps washable) and of course washing hands before and after really well. Leave the medical masks and gloves for the medical professionals - we need them. Maintain social distance from folks. Take-out meals and food are riskier than making food at home given the links between the people who prepare food, transport the food, and you. It is hard to know how much that risk is, but it is is certainly higher than making it at home.

4. If you are sick, definitely stay home and contact a medical professional. If you are sick, you should try isolate yourself from the rest of your family within your house as best as you can. If you have questions about whether you qualify or should get a coronavirus test, you can call you primary care team and/or consider calling the Partners Health Care hotline staffed 8AM-8PM every day - 617 724 7000, or the Massachusettes department of public health at 617 983 6800. Don't just walk in to an ambulatory clinic - call first. Obviously if it is an emergency call 911.

5. We need to push our local, state, and national leaders to close ALL schools, events, gatherings, and public spaces now. A local, town by town response won't have the needed effect. We need a statewide, nationwide approach in these trying times. Contact your representative and the governor to urge them to enact statewide closures. As of today, 6 states had already done so. We should be one of them. Also urge them to fund emergency preparedness and make increasing coronavirus testing capacity an immediate and top priority.

I realize there is a lot built into these suggestions, and that they represent a real burden for many people, businesses, and communities. Social distancing is hard and may negatively impact others, especially those who face vulnerablities in our society. I recognize that there is structural and social inequity built in and around social distancing recommendations. We can and must take steps to bolster our community response to people who face food insecurity, domestic violence, and housing challenges, along with the many other social inequities.

I also realize that not everyone can do everything. But we have to try our absolute best as a community, starting today. It is a public health imperative. If we don't do this now voluntarily, it will become necessary later involuntarily, when the potential benefits will be much less than doing so right now.

Asaf Bitton MD, MPH
Executive Director
Brigham and Women's| Harvard

rak rua

Here's a good link for statistics. I believe it to be accurate, limited by what is reported of course. The worrying part is the number of new cases, which suggests the isolation procedures are not working.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...lYZlfvzqDA4cks

Screenshot of overall numbers:

damdonzi

RAK how does it suggest that?
The most significant issue we have in the US right now is the lack of tests themselves and the resulting analysis to provide results. As those increase in availability the numbers are going to increase exponentially. Isolation steps are meant to decrease those results.

rak rua

Ok, my interpretation is that if the number of cases is increasing then the disease is not contained. Maybe isolation is helping to reduce the increased spread but the virus is still spreading. That's how I read it anyway. Lots of other info on the link.

I was reading today about the alarming lack of testing in the U.S. That's gotta be addressed quickly.

RR

zz28zz

This is the same link I referenced. I've been watching the data for a couple of weeks. 2 days ago Italy reported ~1500 new cases, yesterday ~2500, today ~3500. There are too many variables to determine exactly what's driving the numbers, but it looks pretty bad. Doctors in Italy have been forced to apply battle field triage rules. Many are being sent back home to die and it's getting worse everyday.

rak rua

Sorry ^^^, I missed your link.
My bad.

J-Bonz

Seeing your post had me thinking how are you guys doing in Thailand....?